(電子商務(wù)研究中心訊) 寶山峰會(huì)有趣的見解;提升稅率阿里巴巴將于5月18日公布3月份的Q結(jié)果。我們預(yù)計(jì)收入為36.2億元(同比增長(zhǎng)50%)，符合一致。中國(guó)零售業(yè)增速將同比增長(zhǎng)37%至251億元人民幣。同比增長(zhǎng)108%至22億元人民幣，仍略有下滑。數(shù)字娛樂損失應(yīng)與QoQ保持相似。由于蘇寧提取5%預(yù)扣稅，我們將有效稅率提高至28%，數(shù)字娛樂損失只有微小數(shù)字。我們預(yù)計(jì)非GAAP凈收入為106億美元。最近與天貓品牌合作推出新興市場(chǎng)計(jì)劃的形式，導(dǎo)致我們保留購(gòu)買建議。
追求杰克“新零售”的新戰(zhàn)略：從Uni-ID到Uni-Marketing阿里巴巴在最近的一次BZUN活動(dòng)中，將其“Uni-Marketing”策略列為其最新的“新零售”計(jì)劃，利用其Uni-ID來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)品牌實(shí)現(xiàn)洞察和與消費(fèi)者的互動(dòng)。該公司將于7月份推出新的營(yíng)銷工具包，包括BPDB，Uni-Desk，Uni-CRM，Uni-Strategy(本文檔案)。例如百事可樂與阿里巴巴簽署了跨市場(chǎng)計(jì)劃，定制產(chǎn)品和全方位解決方案的協(xié)議。我們?cè)谶@方面繼續(xù)聽到品牌的良好反饋。
BABA的6月8 - 9日活動(dòng)應(yīng)該提供更多的業(yè)務(wù)洞察力。
Cloud的另一個(gè)降價(jià)業(yè)務(wù)有可能繼續(xù)虧損，在擴(kuò)大市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位方面仍然保持積極態(tài)度。AliCloud今年早些時(shí)候與優(yōu)酷云合作，宣布降價(jià)高達(dá)35%。由于AliCloud專注于成長(zhǎng)客戶，我們預(yù)計(jì)今年將進(jìn)一步降價(jià)。我們預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)幾個(gè)總部可以逐步提高利潤(rùn)。
緩解目標(biāo)價(jià)2.5%至144美元，以反映較高的稅費(fèi);維持BuyWe維持收入預(yù)測(cè)，并將FY-17/18非GAAP凈收入減少1%/ 2，以反映更高的稅率。我們采用不變的SOTP估值(參考評(píng)估部分)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，宏觀，投資。
Interesting insights from Baozun summit; lifting tax rateAlibaba will announce March Q results on May 18th. We expect revenue ofRMB36.2b (+50% YoY), in-line with consensus. China retail rev should grow37% YoY to RMB25.1bn on clear industry tailwinds and ad growth. Cloudshould grow 108% YoY to RMB2.2bn, still with a slight loss. Digitalentertainment losses should remain similar QoQ. We lift effective tax rate to28% due the pick-up of a 5% withholding tax on Suning and only slightlynarrowed digital and entertainment loss. We expect non-GAAP net income ofRMB10.6bn. Recent profiling of collaboration with Tmall brands behind newmarketing initiatives lead us to retain our Buy recommendation.
Pursuing Jack’s“new retail”with new strategies: from Uni-ID to Uni-MarketingAlibaba at a recent BZUN event detailed its“Uni-Marketing”strategy as itslatest“new retail”initiative, utilizing its Uni-ID to enable the brands to achievebetter insights into, and interactions with, consumers. The company in Julywill launch a new marketing toolkit, incl. BPDB, Uni-Desk, Uni-CRM, Uni-Strategy (profiled herein). PepsiCo for instance signed agreements withAlibaba across marketing initiatives, customized products and Omni-channelsolutions. We continue to hear favorable feedback from brands on this front.
BABA’s Jun 8-9 event should offer further insights across the business.
Another price cut on Cloud; business likely to continue to run at a lossAliCloud remains aggressive in expanding its market leadership. AliCloudmerged with Youku Cloud earlier this year, announcing price cuts of up to35%. We expect further price cuts this year as AliCloud focuses on growingcustomers. We expect gradual margin improvement over the next fewquarters.
Easing TP by 2.5% to US$144 to reflect higher tax; Maintain BuyWe maintain revenue forecast and reduce FY17/18 non-GAAP net income by1%/2 to reflect a higher tax rate. We adopt unchanged SOTP valuation (refer tovaluation section). Risks: competition, macro, investment.（來(lái)源：德意志銀行；文/Alan Hellawell；編選：中國(guó)電子商務(wù)研究中心）
